In most companies, product development concepts are tested for market potential before they are launched.
Since many marketers (and their bosses) rely heavily on the test results to get the green light for the next phase, it’s important to understand how these tests actually work.
BASES tests are used in more than 50 percent of cases.
BASES is Nielsen’s Simulated Test Marketing (STM) tool suite and includes a range of STM tools.
The BASES SnapShot concept screening tool is the most important instrument for evaluating new product ideas, line extensions and relaunches.
In SnapShot, each concept is evaluated on the basis of key parameters using a secret black box algorithm.
The Concept Potential Score (CPS) summarizes the results and indicates whether the concept goes into product development or not.
The CPS is based on four criteria that should be taken into account when developing successful design concepts: (1) appreciation, (2) purchase intention, (3) purchase frequency and (4) purchase volume.
However, some difficulties arise in the application of these criteria when we analyze them with the current findings of marketing science:

  • The value rating indicates the extent to which consumers are convinced that the product (better) satisfies a need for a certain price.
    The parameter offers no possibilities for optimizing the design.
    However, marketing science offers test formats that analyze the transformation of subjective value and probability in choice (see Prospect Theory for more details).
    This approach could shed light on how products and communications need to be designed to optimize valuation in terms of losses and gains.
    Other important points not addressed by this Nielsen parameter are differentiation, attention creation and building/refreshing memory structures and shemata.
    Taking these aspects into account would lead to a better evaluation of the product (→ retrieval bias effect).

  • The purchase intention indicator shows the expected probability that a first purchase will be made.
    Due to marketing science, however, there can be a discrepancy between the predicted and actual purchase behavior.
    This can be reduced by using an improved measurement scale.
    For example, Juster’s 11-point scale, which measures the probability of purchase, provides more accurate results.
    Nevertheless, future behavior can only be predicted to a limited extent.
    The measure also provides no information about the cause of the (non-)purchase and therefore no starting points for design optimization.
    The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) examines the variables that influence the purchase intention.
    At the category level, they can analyze why a category is popular and thus provide valuable insights for product design, development and advertising motifs.

  • Purchase frequency indicates the expected frequency with which a product is purchased.
    This key figure is a measure of customer loyalty, as it indicates the number of repeat purchases.
    This means that it follows the law of double jeopardy of marketing science and is therefore dependent on the size of the brand’s market share.

  • The purchase volume indicator predicts the expected number of items per purchase.
    However, fluctuations in sales volume are largely due to sales promotions and seasonal fluctuations (e.g. vacation season, public holidays) and generally have little impact on long-term sales figures or customer loyalty.

In summary, the Nielsen SnapShot criteria do not take current marketing science findings into account and offer only limited added value for design optimization.
However, since BASES tests are used in over 50 percent of companies, it is difficult to avoid them.
Looking at the SnapShot criteria from a marketing science perspective leads to three relevant questions for product concept development:

  • What do consumers really value about the products in the category (→ theory of planned behavior)?

  • What encourages consumers to try the new product and what are the barriers to purchase (→ Prospect Theory)?

  • What creates distinctive brand values and builds or refreshes memory structures (→ Brand Salience Theory)?


Nielsen’s BASES tests predict whether innovations have the potential to succeed on the market.
Nielsen’s innovation database shows that concepts deemed potentially successful in the marketplace attempt to fulfill real (and/or currently unmet) consumer needs.
According to Nielsen, success is based on “demand-driven innovation”, where the right execution is more important than the concept itself.
This means that a well-executed but mediocre concept is better than a brilliant concept with mediocre execution.
This leads us to the question: How is successful execution measured?
Nielsen defines 12 success criteria for testing initiatives and innovation implementations.
These criteria are summarized in the STM tool introScape:

The 12 criteria give a good insight into how perceived value (at a given price) and purchase propensity (likelihood, frequency, volume) can be broken down on the path to purchase.
One interesting aspect is the strong emphasis on attractiveness (need/desire for benefits, credibility and acceptable drawbacks) and communication (communication link, clear/precise message).
The STM tool introScape can easily be translated into briefing criteria for the design.
In terms of testing the use of brand assets to build brand awareness (also to build design language across the portfolio), the criteria need to be further optimized.
The success criterion of findability is very imprecise as it summarizes the findability of the point of sale, the right department in the store and the place on the shelf.
Testing new business model concepts therefore requires more precise criteria for the customer journey aspect.